Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bryce Mitchell
Kron Gracie
89%
11%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
18-5
Career record
Δ 23 pp
5-4
L1
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Mitchell: 26 sig / 2 TD ·
Gracie: 6 sig / 0 TD
Bryce Mitchell
Kron Gracie
47
Sig strikes landed
23
82
Sig strikes attempted
63
78
Total strikes landed
37
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
273s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bryce Mitchell
"Thug Nasty"
18-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
L2
Kron Gracie
5-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—