Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nate Landwehr
Dooho Choi
49%
51%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
36
Age
Δ 3y
34
19-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-4-1
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Landwehr: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Choi: 78 sig / 4 TD
Nate Landwehr
Dooho Choi
48
Sig strikes landed
46
98
Sig strikes attempted
109
68
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
74s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nate Landwehr
"The Train"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
Blue corner
W1
Dooho Choi
"The Korean Superboy"
18-4-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—