Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ciryl Gane
Alexander Volkov
22%
78%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
35
Age
Δ 1y
36
14-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
41-11
W1
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gane: 43 sig / 2 TD ·
Volkov: 39 sig / 3 TD
Ciryl Gane
Alexander Volkov
68
Sig strikes landed
73
128
Sig strikes attempted
125
75
Total strikes landed
79
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ciryl Gane
"Bon Gamin"
14-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W4
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
41-11
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—