Main
Welterweight
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Machado Garry
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Ian Machado Garry
65%
35%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
20-0
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-1
W6
Current streak
W8
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Rakhmonov: 37 sig / 2 TD ·
Machado Garry: 42 sig / 1 TD
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Ian Machado Garry
49
Sig strikes landed
49
85
Sig strikes attempted
89
80
Total strikes landed
64
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.1
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
239s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Shavkat Rakhmonov
"Nomad"
20-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
Blue corner
W8
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
18-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—