🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Kai Asakura
73%
27%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
W6
Current streak
—
15
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pantoja: 32 sig / 3 TD ·
Asakura: 17 sig / 0 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Kai Asakura
61
Sig strikes landed
46
126
Sig strikes attempted
114
90
Total strikes landed
61
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
268s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
Blue corner
Kai Asakura
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31