Back to UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Dominick Reyes vs Anthony Smith

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura ·T-Mobile Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Dominick Reyes
Anthony Smith
47% 53%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
35
Age
Δ 2y
36
17-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
38-23
W1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
23

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Reyes: 121 sig / 0 TD · Smith: 21 sig / 0 TD
Dominick Reyes
Anthony Smith
49
Sig strikes landed
42
86
Sig strikes attempted
88
59
Total strikes landed
56
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
74s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Dominick Reyes

"The Devastator"
17-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
L UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
L UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
L UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
L UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
Blue corner
L1

Anthony Smith

"Lionheart"
38-23
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 23 fights · 13-10
Last 5
L UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
W UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
L UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…