Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Max Griffin
69%
31%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
37
Age
Δ 2y
39
21-7
Career record
Δ 13 pp
21-13
W1
Current streak
W1
19
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Chiesa: 13 sig / 2 TD ·
Griffin: 10 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chiesa
Max Griffin
32
Sig strikes landed
33
72
Sig strikes attempted
74
52
Total strikes landed
56
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
240s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
19 fights · 12-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
Blue corner
W1
Max Griffin
"Pain"
21-13
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
16 fights · 8-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—