Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Chase Hooper
34%
66%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
43
Age
Δ 18y
25
38-23
Career record
Δ 12 pp
17-5-1
L2
Current streak
W3
26
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Guida: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Hooper: 7 sig / 3 TD
Clay Guida
Chase Hooper
32
Sig strikes landed
68
91
Sig strikes attempted
130
47
Total strikes landed
100
1.6
Takedowns landed
2.6
7.1
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
311s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
26 fights · 13-13
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
Blue corner
W3
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
17-5-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—