Back to UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Prelims1 Featherweight

Movsar Evloev vs Aljamain Sterling

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura ·T-Mobile Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Movsar Evloev
Aljamain Sterling
63% 37%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
31
Age
Δ 5y
35
21-0
Career record
Δ 16 pp
27-5
W8
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
20

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Evloev: 8 sig / 4 TD · Sterling: 12 sig / 6 TD
Movsar Evloev
Aljamain Sterling
66
Sig strikes landed
58
123
Sig strikes attempted
127
133
Total strikes landed
85
3.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
5.9
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
311s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W8

Movsar Evloev

21-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
W UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
W UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
W UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
W UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Blue corner
W1

Aljamain Sterling

"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 20 fights · 16-4
Last 5
W UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
L UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
W UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
W UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
W UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…