Back to UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo
Prelims1 Flyweight

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel vs Carlos Hernandez

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo ·Galaxy Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Carlos Hernandez
74% 26%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Tumendemberel: 26 sig / 0 TD · Hernandez: 44 sig / 4 TD
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Carlos Hernandez
45
Sig strikes landed
43
92
Sig strikes attempted
83
62
Total strikes landed
55
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
179s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

"Art of Knockout"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L2

Carlos Hernandez

10-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
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