Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Lone'er Kavanagh
Jose Ochoa
59%
41%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
26
Age
Δ 2y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kavanagh: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Ochoa: 50 sig / 0 TD
Lone'er Kavanagh
Jose Ochoa
35
Sig strikes landed
36
71
Sig strikes attempted
74
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
175s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lone'er Kavanagh
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Jose Ochoa
"Kalzifer"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24