Back to UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Prelims1 Lightweight

David Onama vs Roberto Romero

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic ·Madison Square Garden

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
David Onama
Roberto Romero
68% 32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
30
Age
Δ 6y
25
W2
Current streak
6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Onama: 121 sig / 1 TD · Romero: 74 sig / 0 TD
David Onama
Roberto Romero
54
Sig strikes landed
36
111
Sig strikes attempted
77
70
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

David Onama

15-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
L UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
Blue corner

Roberto Romero

"El Charro Negro"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25