Prelims1
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura vs Jhonata Diniz
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Jhonata Diniz
68%
32%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
80"
39
Age
Δ 6y
33
27-12
Career record
Δ 14 pp
10-2
L1
Current streak
W2
20
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Tybura: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Diniz: 15 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Tybura
Jhonata Diniz
29
Sig strikes landed
41
65
Sig strikes attempted
76
45
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
-0.2
3.9
Takedowns attempted
-0.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
145s
Control time
29s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
27-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
20 fights · 12-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
Blue corner
W2
Jhonata Diniz
10-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—