Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mauricio Ruffy
James Llontop
63%
37%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
14-2
Career record
Δ 18 pp
14-6
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ruffy: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Llontop: 90 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Ruffy
James Llontop
47
Sig strikes landed
34
103
Sig strikes attempted
97
53
Total strikes landed
27
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
55s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mauricio Ruffy
14-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
Blue corner
L2
James Llontop
"Goku"
14-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—