Prelims1
Bantamweight
Jonathan Martinez vs Marcus McGhee
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jonathan Martinez
Marcus McGhee
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
31
Age
Δ 4y
34
19-7
Career record
Δ 12 pp
11-2
L1
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Martinez: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
McGhee: 102 sig / 0 TD
Jonathan Martinez
Marcus McGhee
58
Sig strikes landed
37
109
Sig strikes attempted
83
67
Total strikes landed
50
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jonathan Martinez
"Dragon"
19-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
Blue corner
W3
Marcus McGhee
"The Maniac"
11-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—