Back to UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Prelims2 Welterweight

Bassil Hafez vs Oban Elliott

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic ·Madison Square Garden

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Bassil Hafez
Oban Elliott
34% 66%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
10-4-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
13-4
W1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Hafez: 24 sig / 0 TD · Elliott: 65 sig / 0 TD
Bassil Hafez
Oban Elliott
46
Sig strikes landed
64
128
Sig strikes attempted
137
66
Total strikes landed
83
1.0
Takedowns landed
2.7
5.1
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
134s
Control time
244s
Method
Decision
86%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
5%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Bassil Hafez

"The Habibi"
10-4-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
Blue corner
W2

Oban Elliott

"The Welsh Gangster"
13-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
W UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria