Prelims2
Women's Flyweight
Veronica Hardy vs Eduarda Moura
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Veronica Hardy
Eduarda Moura
36%
64%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
11-5-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
12-3
W3
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hardy: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Moura: 26 sig / 3 TD
Veronica Hardy
Eduarda Moura
28
Sig strikes landed
35
52
Sig strikes attempted
71
57
Total strikes landed
74
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
124s
Control time
241s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Veronica Hardy
11-5-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Eduarda Moura
"Ronda"
12-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—