Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bo Nickal
Paul Craig
74%
26%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
29
Age
Δ 8y
37
9-1
Career record
Δ 31 pp
17-11-1
W3
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nickal: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Craig: 47 sig / 0 TD
Bo Nickal
Paul Craig
23
Sig strikes landed
14
46
Sig strikes attempted
21
49
Total strikes landed
20
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
202s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
52%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Bo Nickal
9-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
L2
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
18 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—