Main
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Michael Chandler
85%
15%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
35
Age
Δ 4y
39
37-12
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-11
L1
Current streak
L1
33
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Oliveira: 88 sig / 5 TD ·
Chandler: 84 sig / 0 TD
Charles Oliveira
Michael Chandler
34
Sig strikes landed
30
98
Sig strikes attempted
55
52
Total strikes landed
47
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
55%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
33 fights · 22-10
Last 5
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
L1
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
23-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—