🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Stipe Miocic
89%
11%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
37
Age
Δ 5y
42
29-1
Career record
Δ 20 pp
20-6
W8
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Jones: 96 sig / 1 TD ·
Miocic: 37 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Stipe Miocic
71
Sig strikes landed
53
105
Sig strikes attempted
115
109
Total strikes landed
77
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.8
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
245s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
19 fights · 18-0
Last 5
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Stipe Miocic
20-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
18 fights · 14-4
Last 5
L
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—