Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Julieta Martinez
Leslie Hernandez
78%
22%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
20
Age
Δ 7y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Martinez: 38 sig / 5 TD ·
Hernandez: 54 sig / 0 TD
Julieta Martinez
Leslie Hernandez
34
Sig strikes landed
32
78
Sig strikes attempted
75
89
Total strikes landed
55
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
204s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Julieta Martinez
"The Ninja Ferret"
0-0
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20
Blue corner
Leslie Hernandez
"Dora The Destroyer"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27