Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mohamed Ado
Jonathan Micallef
53%
47%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
77"
24
Age
Δ 1y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ado: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Micallef: 1 sig / 1 TD
Mohamed Ado
Jonathan Micallef
33
Sig strikes landed
37
71
Sig strikes attempted
74
44
Total strikes landed
53
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mohamed Ado
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
Blue corner
Jonathan Micallef
"The Captain"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26