Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Antonio Monteiro
Yadier del Valle
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Monteiro: 59 sig / 1 TD ·
del Valle: 125 sig / 2 TD
Antonio Monteiro
Yadier del Valle
38
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
73
54
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Antonio Monteiro
"Junior Negao"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Yadier del Valle
"The Cuban Problem"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28