Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Vanilto Antunes
Islam Dulatov
47%
53%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Antunes: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Dulatov: 39 sig / 1 TD
Vanilto Antunes
Islam Dulatov
35
Sig strikes landed
41
69
Sig strikes attempted
82
48
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
121s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Vanilto Antunes
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Islam Dulatov
"The Ripper"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26