Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Lucas Camacho
Mario Pinto
35%
65%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Camacho: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Pinto: 14 sig / 0 TD
Lucas Camacho
Mario Pinto
30
Sig strikes landed
37
61
Sig strikes attempted
70
41
Total strikes landed
79
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
87s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lucas Camacho
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Mario Pinto
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27