Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ateba Gautier
Yura Naito
78%
22%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 7"
74"
22
Age
Δ 6y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gautier: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Naito: 11 sig / 1 TD
Ateba Gautier
Yura Naito
39
Sig strikes landed
30
79
Sig strikes attempted
61
56
Total strikes landed
45
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
138s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ateba Gautier
"The Storm"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Switch
Age
22
Blue corner
Yura Naito
"2 FACE"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28