Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ahmad Hassanzada
Dylan Mantello
78%
22%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
11-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Hassanzada: 47 sig / 2 TD ·
Mantello: 56 sig / 0 TD
Ahmad Hassanzada
Dylan Mantello
31
Sig strikes landed
34
67
Sig strikes attempted
64
76
Total strikes landed
50
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
309s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ahmad Hassanzada
"Lion of the Ring"
11-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 6.4
—
Blue corner
L1
Dylan Mantello
"The Quiet Man"
8-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 7.7
—