Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tallison Teixeira
Arthur Lopes
76%
24%
Why
83"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Teixeira: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Lopes: 19 sig / 0 TD
Tallison Teixeira
Arthur Lopes
38
Sig strikes landed
30
77
Sig strikes attempted
51
57
Total strikes landed
45
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
130s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tallison Teixeira
"Xicao"
0-0
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Arthur Lopes
"Demolidor"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32