Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Aaron Tau
Elijah Smith
43%
57%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
31
Age
Δ 9y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tau: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 75 sig / 5 TD
Aaron Tau
Elijah Smith
32
Sig strikes landed
37
63
Sig strikes attempted
81
51
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
162s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Aaron Tau
"Tauzemup"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
Blue corner
Elijah Smith
"Swift"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22