Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jonathan Pearce
Pat Sabatini
36%
64%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
14-8
Career record
Δ 15 pp
22-6
L2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pearce: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Sabatini: 3 sig / 2 TD
Jonathan Pearce
Pat Sabatini
21
Sig strikes landed
25
43
Sig strikes attempted
43
44
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.5
2.7
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
163s
Control time
267s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jonathan Pearce
"JSP"
14-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
L1
Pat Sabatini
22-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—