Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
CJ Vergara
Ramazan Temirov
26%
74%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
63"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
L1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Vergara: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Temirov: 23 sig / 0 TD
CJ Vergara
Ramazan Temirov
45
Sig strikes landed
48
84
Sig strikes attempted
100
59
Total strikes landed
63
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
CJ Vergara
12-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
Ramazan Temirov
"Temurlan"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28