Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Rodriguez
Alex Morono
65%
35%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
38
Age
Δ 4y
34
20-6
Career record
Δ 14 pp
24-14
L3
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rodriguez: 123 sig / 1 TD ·
Morono: 74 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Rodriguez
Alex Morono
82
Sig strikes landed
68
168
Sig strikes attempted
161
90
Total strikes landed
88
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
45s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
20-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Morono
"The Great White"
24-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
21 fights · 13-7
Last 5
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—