Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Grant Dawson
Rafa Garcia
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
31
Age
Δ 0y
30
25-3-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-4
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Dawson: 44 sig / 2 TD ·
Garcia: 5 sig / 0 TD
Grant Dawson
Rafa Garcia
51
Sig strikes landed
38
126
Sig strikes attempted
94
82
Total strikes landed
68
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
7.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
245s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
25-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
Blue corner
W2
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
20-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—