Back to UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Julia Polastri vs Cory McKenna

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Julia Polastri
Cory McKenna
66% 34%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 4"
58"
27
Age
Δ 1y
25
14-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Polastri: 88 sig / 0 TD · McKenna: 40 sig / 1 TD
Julia Polastri
Cory McKenna
43
Sig strikes landed
38
98
Sig strikes attempted
100
69
Total strikes landed
68
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
207s
Control time
279s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Julia Polastri

"Psycho"
14-7
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
Blue corner
L1

Cory McKenna

"Poppins"
8-5
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
59"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
W UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…