Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
JunYong Park
38%
62%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
37
Age
Δ 3y
34
21-14
Career record
Δ 10 pp
19-8
L1
Current streak
L1
24
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Tavares: 65 sig / 0 TD ·
Park: 99 sig / 2 TD
Brad Tavares
JunYong Park
47
Sig strikes landed
54
109
Sig strikes attempted
113
61
Total strikes landed
81
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
61s
Control time
245s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brad Tavares
21-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
24 fights · 15-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
L
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
Blue corner
L1
JunYong Park
"The Iron Turtle"
19-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—