Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brandon Royval
Tatsuro Taira
24%
76%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 8y
25
18-9
Career record
Δ 24 pp
19-2
W1
Current streak
W6
9
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Royval: 124 sig / 3 TD ·
Taira: 42 sig / 6 TD
Brandon Royval
Tatsuro Taira
40
Sig strikes landed
44
95
Sig strikes attempted
99
44
Total strikes landed
58
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
54s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
Blue corner
W6
Tatsuro Taira
"The Best"
19-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—