Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Daniel Pineda
71%
29%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
40
Age
Δ 1y
39
30-12
Career record
Δ 11 pp
28-18
W1
Current streak
L2
28
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elkins: 39 sig / 3 TD ·
Pineda: 31 sig / 0 TD
Darren Elkins
Daniel Pineda
40
Sig strikes landed
29
78
Sig strikes attempted
67
71
Total strikes landed
41
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
6.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
226s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
28 fights · 18-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
Blue corner
L2
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
28-18
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
13 fights · 5-7
Last 5
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—