Prelims1
Flyweight
Matheus Nicolau vs Asu Almabayev
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matheus Nicolau
Asu Almabayev
32%
68%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
19-7-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
24-3
L2
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nicolau: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Almabayev: 22 sig / 1 TD
Matheus Nicolau
Asu Almabayev
29
Sig strikes landed
31
58
Sig strikes attempted
57
34
Total strikes landed
61
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.8
0.4
Takedowns attempted
6.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
65s
Control time
404s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Matheus Nicolau
19-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
Blue corner
W3
Asu Almabayev
"Zulfikar"
24-3
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—