Prelims1
Bantamweight
Brad Katona vs Jean Matsumoto
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Katona
Jean Matsumoto
33%
67%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
33
Age
Δ 8y
25
17-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-2
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Katona: 89 sig / 3 TD ·
Matsumoto: 89 sig / 1 TD
Brad Katona
Jean Matsumoto
30
Sig strikes landed
42
51
Sig strikes attempted
84
50
Total strikes landed
58
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
145s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brad Katona
"Superman"
17-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jean Matsumoto
18-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—