Prelims1
Welterweight
Matthew Semelsberger vs Charles Radtke
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Matthew Semelsberger
Charles Radtke
49%
51%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
11-9
Career record
Δ 12 pp
12-6
L3
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Semelsberger: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Radtke: 7 sig / 0 TD
Matthew Semelsberger
Charles Radtke
32
Sig strikes landed
36
68
Sig strikes attempted
72
36
Total strikes landed
59
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.1
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
77s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
L
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Charles Radtke
"Chuck Buffalo"
12-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—