Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Denise Gomes
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Denise Gomes
27%
73%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
63"
39
Age
Δ 14y
25
16-11
Career record
Δ 22 pp
13-3
L1
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kowalkiewicz: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Gomes: 73 sig / 0 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Denise Gomes
64
Sig strikes landed
61
135
Sig strikes attempted
145
76
Total strikes landed
84
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
109s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16-11
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
Blue corner
W1
Denise Gomes
"Dee"
13-3
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—