Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
David Martinez
Xavier Franklin
80%
20%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Martinez: 79 sig / 0 TD ·
Franklin: 46 sig / 0 TD
David Martinez
Xavier Franklin
38
Sig strikes landed
32
77
Sig strikes attempted
69
57
Total strikes landed
39
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
154s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
David Martinez
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Xavier Franklin
"Mr. Benjamin"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28