Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alberto Montes
Carlos Calderon
73%
27%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
30
Age
Δ 2y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Montes: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Calderon: 37 sig / 2 TD
Alberto Montes
Carlos Calderon
36
Sig strikes landed
34
74
Sig strikes attempted
74
57
Total strikes landed
43
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
193s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alberto Montes
"The Promise"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Carlos Calderon
"Chief"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29