Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Diyar Nurgozhay
Bartosz Szewczyk
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Nurgozhay: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Szewczyk: 23 sig / 0 TD
Diyar Nurgozhay
Bartosz Szewczyk
34
Sig strikes landed
33
69
Sig strikes attempted
67
52
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
145s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Diyar Nurgozhay
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
Bartosz Szewczyk
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27