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Prelims1 Lightweight

Austin Hubbard vs Alexander Hernandez

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. ·Delta Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Austin Hubbard
Alexander Hernandez
49% 51%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
18-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
18-10
W1
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Hubbard: 63 sig / 0 TD · Hernandez: 79 sig / 0 TD
Austin Hubbard
Alexander Hernandez
57
Sig strikes landed
54
123
Sig strikes attempted
126
74
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
106s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Austin Hubbard

"Thud"
18-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
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L UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
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Blue corner
L2

Alexander Hernandez

"El Gran Chango"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
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W UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
L UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—