Back to UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Prelims1 Middleweight

Cesar Almeida vs Ihor Potieria

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. ·Delta Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Cesar Almeida
Ihor Potieria
29% 71%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
36
Age
Δ 8y
28
7-3
Career record
Δ 1 pp
20-9
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Almeida: 57 sig / 0 TD · Potieria: 44 sig / 3 TD
Cesar Almeida
Ihor Potieria
33
Sig strikes landed
47
69
Sig strikes attempted
98
46
Total strikes landed
58
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
53s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Cesar Almeida

"Cesinha"
7-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
Blue corner
L1

Ihor Potieria

"Duelist"
20-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—