Back to UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Marina Rodriguez vs Iasmin Lucindo

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marina Rodriguez
Iasmin Lucindo
29% 71%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
37
Age
Δ 15y
23
17-7-2
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-6
L1
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rodriguez: 33 sig / 1 TD · Lucindo: 30 sig / 3 TD
Marina Rodriguez
Iasmin Lucindo
67
Sig strikes landed
60
156
Sig strikes attempted
140
87
Total strikes landed
84
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
103s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Marina Rodriguez

17-7-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 13 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
W UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
L UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
W UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Blue corner
W3

Iasmin Lucindo

19-6
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
W UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
W UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
L UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz