Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann vs Ovince Saint Preux
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
·Delta Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Spann
Ovince Saint Preux
74%
26%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
33
Age
Δ 8y
42
24-12
Career record
Δ 6 pp
28-18
L3
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Spann: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Saint Preux: 7 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Spann
Ovince Saint Preux
41
Sig strikes landed
28
78
Sig strikes attempted
46
51
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
112s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
24-12
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ovince Saint Preux
28-18
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database
27 fights · 15-12
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—