Prelims2
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs Tecia Pennington
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
·Delta Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Tecia Pennington
64%
36%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
60"
37
Age
Δ 2y
35
20-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
15-9
L1
Current streak
L2
15
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Esparza: 39 sig / 4 TD ·
Pennington: 80 sig / 0 TD
Carla Esparza
Tecia Pennington
51
Sig strikes landed
53
104
Sig strikes attempted
104
81
Total strikes landed
84
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
259s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20-9
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
L2
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
15-9
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—