Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Court McGee
Tim Means
41%
59%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
40
Age
Δ 1y
41
23-15
Career record
Δ 3 pp
33-18-1
L3
Current streak
L1
22
UFC fights in our DB
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
McGee: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Means: 5 sig / 0 TD
Court McGee
Tim Means
68
Sig strikes landed
71
128
Sig strikes attempted
139
79
Total strikes landed
87
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.80
191s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Court McGee
"The Crusher"
23-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
22 fights · 10-12
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
29 fights · 15-13
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—